Europe’s banks are about to run a massive efficiency experiment on their own workforce.
According to a new Morgan Stanley analysis, reported by the Financial Times, more than 200,000 banking jobs in Europe could disappear by 2030 as lenders roll out AI systems and shut physical branches. That’s roughly 10% of staff across 35 major banks.
Where the cuts are coming
The heaviest pain won’t be at the teller window but deep inside the machine:
- Back‑office operations
- Risk management
- Compliance
These are the unglamorous but critical functions that keep big banks moving and regulators satisfied. They also involve the kind of repeatable, rules‑driven work that large language models and automation tools are getting very good at.
Morgan Stanley’s report says banks are chasing efficiency gains of around 30% by leaning into AI. For executives under pressure on costs and returns, that number is irresistible.
This isn’t just a European story
The shift is global. In October, Goldman Sachs warned U.S. employees about job cuts and a hiring freeze through the end of 2025 as part of an AI program dubbed “OneGS 3.0.” The initiative targets everything from client onboarding to regulatory reporting.
In Europe, some banks are already swinging the axe:
- ABN Amro plans to cut around 20% of its staff by 2028.
- Société Générale’s CEO has reportedly told staff that “nothing is sacred.”
Taken together, it signals that AI in banking has moved past slideware and pilot projects. Headcount is now squarely on the line.
The skills time bomb
Not everyone in the industry is cheering. A JPMorgan Chase executive told the Financial Times that if junior bankers never get the chance to learn the fundamentals because machines handle the grunt work, the sector could pay for it later.
That’s the emerging paradox for white‑collar AI adoption:
- The work most easily automated is exactly the work that used to train new talent.
- Strip it away too quickly, and you risk an industry full of people who can operate tools but don’t understand the underlying systems.
What this means for workers
The headline number — 200,000 jobs — will dominate the debate, but how banks execute these plans matters just as much as how many roles go away.
Watch for three big fault lines:
Retraining vs. redundancy
Will banks fund serious reskilling into AI oversight, data quality, and higher‑value client roles, or lean primarily on attrition and layoffs?Branch closures and access
As physical locations shrink, regulators and politicians will ask what happens to financial inclusion, especially for older customers and rural areas.Regulatory scrutiny
If risk and compliance are heavily automated, supervisors will want transparency into how those models work — and who is accountable when something breaks.
The new baseline for banking jobs
The Morgan Stanley forecast doesn’t guarantee that 200,000 people will be out of work by 2030. Economic cycles, regulation, and political pressure will all shape the final outcome.
But it does set a new baseline: AI is no longer a side project in European banking. It’s a core driver of headcount decisions.
For employees in back‑office, risk, and compliance roles, the message is clear. Over the next five years, knowing how to work alongside AI systems — and how to question them — may matter as much as knowing how to build another spreadsheet model.
