1. Headline & intro
SpaceX isn’t just preparing to go public; it’s testing how much speculative appetite is left in global markets. A rumored $1.5 trillion valuation would instantly place Elon Musk’s rocket company among the world’s most valuable public firms—before a single retail investor has clicked “buy.”
This potential listing matters far beyond space nerds and Musk fans. It will pressure other unicorns to move, redraw late-stage venture pricing, and test whether public markets are ready to pay private‑market multiples again. In this piece, we’ll unpack what TechCrunch’s report really signals: a stress test for the entire tech funding stack, from secondary markets to European capital formation.
2. The news in brief
According to TechCrunch, SpaceX is working with four major Wall Street banks on a planned IPO in 2026. The company recently completed a tender offer that priced it at around $800 billion, and demand for private shares on secondary markets is described as intense.
Market chatter, as cited by TechCrunch, suggests that a public listing could target a valuation in the area of $1.5 trillion. That would make SpaceX one of the most valuable companies ever to debut on public markets.
The report frames this as a potential catalyst: if SpaceX lists anywhere near those numbers, it could spark an IPO wave among other late‑stage giants like OpenAI, Stripe and Databricks. TechCrunch’s Equity podcast hosted Greg Martin of Rainmaker Securities to discuss why this deal feels different, how employees are using secondaries for liquidity, and what pre‑IPO investors are hunting for right now.
3. Why this matters
The headline story is valuation, but the deeper story is liquidity.
For a decade, the venture industry has relied on a simple promise: stay patient, accept illiquidity, and one day an IPO or acquisition will make everyone whole. That promise broke during the 2022–2023 IPO drought. Late‑stage funds sat on paper gains, employees sat on illiquid options, and LPs started asking where the exits went.
SpaceX reopening the door at this scale does three things at once:
Resets the late‑stage benchmark. If public markets accept anything close to $1.5 trillion, every large unicorn CFO will be told, “You’re next.” Even a successful but more modest outcome will still set a new reference point for deep‑tech, infrastructure and space valuations.
Shifts power back to founders and employees. Secondary markets are already “on fire,” as TechCrunch notes. That’s not just speculation; it’s pent‑up liquidity. Employees who’ve waited through multiple tender rounds can finally diversify. Founders get fresh leverage in boardrooms: the IPO window is no longer theoretical.
Puts public investors on the spot. Institutional investors who sat out the private rounds now face a dilemma: pay growth‑stage prices in public markets, or continue underweight exposure to one of the few companies actually shipping reusable rockets and global broadband.
The losers? Any late‑stage startup whose story doesn’t withstand a SpaceX comparison. A trillion‑dollar space company going public will make many pre‑IPO decks look suddenly small, slow, or over‑valued.
4. The bigger picture
We’ve been here—sort of—before. Alibaba’s 2014 listing, Meta’s 2012 IPO, and Saudi Aramco’s debut all tested how far public markets would stretch for strategic, system‑level companies. SpaceX adds a new ingredient: a private valuation curve that has already gone almost vertical.
This news also lands after a very specific cycle:
- 2020–2021: Zero‑rate mania, SPACs, and frothy tech IPOs.
- 2022–2023: Inflation, rate hikes, and an almost complete freeze in growth tech listings.
- 2024: A tentative reopening with smaller, more conservatively priced IPOs.
A 2026 SpaceX IPO would be the first mega‑listing of the post‑zero‑rate era built on a decade of private capital and operational execution. That combination is unusual: SpaceX is not a hope‑and‑PowerPoint SPAC target; it’s a company with rockets flying regularly and a global satellite network in commercial use.
Two broader trends converge here:
Secondary markets as a permanent fixture. What TechCrunch highlights—the frenzy around SpaceX secondaries—isn’t a sideshow. It’s the new normal. Employees and early investors increasingly expect liquidity before IPO. Platforms, brokerages and specialized funds have grown up around that expectation.
Deep‑tech’s vindication. For years, software‑only investors dismissed capital‑intensive hardware and space as "too hard". A successful SpaceX float, at any reasonable valuation, would confirm that patient capital in hard‑tech can outperform yet another SaaS tool.
Against this backdrop, OpenAI, Stripe, Databricks and others won’t just be watching; they’ll be repricing their own narratives. Are they infrastructure like SpaceX—or apps sitting on someone else’s rails?
5. The European / regional angle
For Europe, SpaceX’s march toward the public markets is both an opportunity and a mirror.
On the opportunity side, European investors—from pension funds in the Nordics to retail traders in Berlin, Paris or Ljubljana—will almost certainly access the stock via US exchanges. In a region where domestic IPO pipelines remain thin, a liquid, globally strategic asset like SpaceX is attractive. Every neobroker pushing US equities into European phones will be preparing marketing decks already.
But the mirror is less flattering. Europe still relies heavily on SpaceX for launch capacity after repeated delays and cost overruns in its own programs. ESA’s Ariane 6 is only now ramping, while small‑launcher startups from Germany, Spain and elsewhere are still pre‑scale. A hyper‑capitalized SpaceX with a trillion‑dollar war chest would not just be a supplier; it would be critical infrastructure.
Regulators in Brussels are unlikely to ignore that. Expect the SpaceX/Starlink story to be read together with the EU’s Digital Services Act and upcoming space and connectivity strategies. Questions about spectrum allocation, sovereignty of broadband networks, and resilience of launch services will intensify once millions of European citizens and companies hold the stock in their portfolios.
6. Looking ahead
Several fault lines will determine whether this IPO is a landmark success or a cautionary tale:
Disclosure vs. mystique. An S‑1 filing will finally put hard numbers on Starlink’s economics, launch margins and capital needs. That transparency may either validate the valuation or expose just how far ahead of fundamentals private pricing has run.
Governance and control. How much formal power will Elon Musk retain? Dual‑class shares, related‑party dealings with his other companies, and succession planning will be closely scrutinized—especially by European and ESG‑focused funds.
Macro timing. A 2026 listing assumes a relatively friendly rate and volatility environment. If inflation or geopolitical shocks flare up, a trillion‑dollar growth story could be a hard sell, no matter how compelling the rockets are.
Watch secondary prices and tender offers over the next 12–18 months: they’ll be the real‑time barometer of confidence. Also watch how aggressively Stripe, Databricks, and other unicorns accelerate their own listing plans; nobody wants to follow a blockbuster if it disappoints.
7. The bottom line
SpaceX going public is more than a liquidity event; it’s a referendum on whether public markets are ready to underwrite grand, expensive visions again. If investors bless anything close to a $1.5 trillion valuation, late‑stage tech will get a new playbook—and a new benchmark that many can’t meet. If they balk, the message will be just as clear: private markets pushed too far.
The real question for readers isn’t just “Should I buy the IPO?” but “What does backing this kind of company say about the future we want to finance?”
