1. Headline & intro
Uber never stopped betting on self‑driving; it just outsourced the risk. The new billion‑dollar deal with autonomous driving startup Waabi isn’t only a funding story, it’s a window into Uber’s endgame: to become the operating system for whatever — or whoever — is driving. As robotaxi projects stall, crash or consolidate, Uber is quietly positioning itself as the one constant layer on top.
In this piece, we’ll unpack what the Waabi partnership really buys Uber, why its “bet on everyone” strategy may be more rational than it looks, how it reshapes the AV landscape, and what it means for European markets that still treat robotaxis with caution.
2. The news in brief
According to TechCrunch, self‑driving truck startup Waabi has secured a funding package worth up to $1 billion that significantly deepens its relationship with Uber.
The structure: $750 million in fresh capital, plus up to an additional $250 million from Uber, contingent on Waabi hitting deployment milestones. Waabi, founded by former Uber AI chief Raquel Urtasun, is known for a “simulation‑first” approach to training autonomous systems.
While Waabi has focused on autonomous trucks, this deal marks a major expansion into robotaxis. TechCrunch reports that Waabi plans to deploy more than 25,000 robotaxis, with Uber as a key distribution and commercialization partner.
The article also notes that Uber now has more than 20 autonomous vehicle partners worldwide. The TechCrunch Equity podcast uses the deal to examine whether Uber’s sprawling AV partnership strategy is coherent — and whether Waabi’s technology can stand out in a crowded, expensive field.
3. Why this matters
At first glance, this looks like yet another moonshot in a sector littered with them. But strategically, it’s a sharp move for Uber.
Uber’s upside: supply, not hardware.
Uber’s core problem is simple: it does not control supply. Drivers can switch to competitors, prefer peak‑time work or simply log off. Autonomous vehicles promise an always‑on, predictable fleet — but building that technology in‑house nearly sank Uber’s finances earlier in the last decade. By pumping money into Waabi (and over 20 other AV partners), Uber buys future access to autonomous supply without owning factories, sensors or safety drivers.
Minimal balance‑sheet risk.
The milestone‑based $250 million component is telling. Uber is no longer writing blank checks like the old days of Uber ATG. Cash is tied directly to real‑world deployments on the Uber network. If Waabi cannot hit those milestones, Uber’s exposure shrinks. If it can, Uber effectively secures dedicated robotaxi capacity, on terms it helped define.
Waabi’s big win — and big dependency.
For Waabi, the upside is massive: capital, data, and a ready‑made marketplace of riders. But the dependency risk is real. If most of its robotaxi revenue flows through Uber, Waabi becomes a high‑tech supplier more than an independent mobility platform. That can cap long‑term margins and bargaining power.
The quiet losers: human drivers and latecomer AV startups.
Human drivers won’t disappear overnight, but this deal underlines Uber’s direction of travel. As soon as AVs are cheaper per kilometre than drivers — after including capital costs and safety overhead — Uber has every incentive to prioritize them. Smaller AV startups without a distribution partner of Uber’s scale may find fundraising harder: capital will flow to players with a clear go‑to‑market path.
In short, this is less about a single AV bet and more about Uber locking in multiple, competing paths to an autonomous future while keeping its own risk capped.
4. The bigger picture
Waabi’s move into robotaxis plugs into several broader trends in autonomy and AI.
From vertical integration to platform orchestration.
A few years ago, the dominant narrative in AV was vertical: Waymo and Cruise wanted to own the full stack — from silicon and software to branded robotaxi fleets. Uber followed that playbook briefly with its own ATG division before selling it off. Now the pendulum is swinging the other way. Platform companies like Uber (and to some extent Lyft) want to orchestrate a portfolio of AV suppliers, much like airlines lease planes from different manufacturers.
That has consequences. It turns AV hardware and software into something closer to a commodity service, where unit economics and reliability matter more than brand. If Uber succeeds, many AV companies will compete to fill the same app’s map.
Simulation‑first as the new orthodoxy.
Waabi’s thesis — leaning heavily on AI training in high‑fidelity simulators, then validating in the real world — sits squarely within a broader AI trend. In gaming, robotics and even chip design, synthetic data has become a way to reduce cost and accelerate learning.
In the AV world, that’s a direct challenge to the Waymo/Tesla mindset of accumulating billions of real‑world kilometres. Real‑world miles are still indispensable for validation, but if simulation can replace a big chunk of the expensive, risky on‑road training, the cost curve for new entrants like Waabi looks more favourable.
A more disciplined AV boom.
The previous AV hype cycle (roughly 2015–2020) burned colossal sums with very little commercial return. Since then, investors have become more sceptical, focusing on specific business models like autonomous trucking and limited robotaxi zones. Waabi’s deal fits that more disciplined pattern: money tied to milestones, and a clear path to revenue via Uber’s marketplace rather than pure R&D.
Put together, the deal signals a maturing industry: less "we’ll solve full autonomy everywhere" bravado, more focus on who controls the customer relationship and who can scale profitably in defined domains.
5. The European / regional angle
From a European perspective, Uber’s Waabi bet is both intriguing and distant.
Regulators in the EU are already shaping the guardrails for this technology. The EU AI Act, combined with existing vehicle safety regulations and GDPR, will make large‑scale robotaxi deployment far more complex than in many US states. Continuous data collection from sensors will trigger strict data‑minimisation and localisation rules. Any cross‑border operation will have to juggle national approval regimes on top of Brussels‑level frameworks.
Uber’s AV activity is still heavily concentrated in North America, and this deal doesn’t immediately change that. But if Uber manages to prove a safe, cost‑effective model with Waabi in the US or Canada, European cities will come under pressure to respond — especially where Uber is already entrenched.
For European incumbents, this is a strategic warning shot. Local players like Free Now, Bolt, Cabify (in Spain and Latin America) and various national taxi cooperatives need a view on autonomy that isn’t just "wait and see." Meanwhile, European automakers and suppliers — from Volkswagen and Mercedes‑Benz to Mobileye‑powered projects — must decide whether they’re comfortable letting US platforms like Uber own the customer relationship while they provide the wheels.
European culture around labour and public transport also matters. Stronger worker protections, powerful taxi lobbies and dense transit networks may slow robotaxi rollouts — but they won’t stop the underlying economics once AVs become cheaper and safer than human‑driven rides.
6. Looking ahead
The immediate question is whether Waabi can actually deliver those 25,000 robotaxis — and where.
In the next two to three years, expect limited‑geography pilots tightly integrated into the Uber app: fixed airport routes, downtown corridors, maybe late‑night operations where demand is high and traffic is predictable. The early deployments will likely be in North American cities with friendly regulators and good weather, rather than dense, historic European centres.
Key signals to watch:
- Cost per kilometre vs human drivers. Until AV rides are consistently cheaper and profitable, scale will remain limited.
- Safety record and transparency. Any high‑profile incident could freeze expansion, especially in regions like the EU with low tolerance for perceived tech risk.
- Contract structures between Uber and AV partners. If Uber starts negotiating revenue‑share deals that look more like app‑store economics, AV suppliers may find themselves in a familiar platform squeeze.
- Communications towards drivers. How Uber frames this shift to its human driver base will matter socially and politically. Expect promises of "new opportunities" long before there’s a credible plan.
My bet: Uber will gradually replace a slice of low‑margin, low‑rating or hard‑to‑serve routes with AV capacity over the second half of this decade, while keeping a human‑driver core for flexibility and coverage. Europe will lag the US by several years, but once a handful of cities demonstrate stable, safe operations, the debate will flip from "whether" to "how fast."
7. The bottom line
Uber isn’t trying to win the autonomous vehicle race by building the smartest car; it’s trying to own the traffic. The Waabi deal reinforces Uber’s role as the layer between riders and whatever autonomous systems actually do the driving. If this works, AV startups risk becoming interchangeable suppliers competing for a spot on Uber’s map.
The open question is whether regulators, cities and drivers will accept that outcome — or whether they’ll push for alternatives that keep more control, and value, closer to home. Would you be comfortable if your first robotaxi ride came not from an automaker or a local operator, but from an AI trained in simulation and dispatched by a global app?
