Windows 11 at 1 Billion Users: Victory Lap or Warning Sign?

Windows 11 at 1 Billion Users: Victory Lap or Warning Sign?

Windows 11 has done what many loud online critics claimed it would struggle to do: reach 1 billion users, and slightly faster than Windows 10 managed. That’s a huge strategic win on paper. But the way Microsoft got there – through OEM dominance, aggressive upgrade flows, and a captive enterprise base – says as much about the lack of alternatives as it does about the strength of the product.

In this piece, we’ll unpack what this milestone really means, why enthusiasts can be furious while adoption still soars, and how this shapes the future of Windows, AI PCs, and Europe’s increasingly assertive regulators.

The news in brief

According to Ars Technica, citing Microsoft’s latest earnings call, CEO Satya Nadella told investors that Windows 11 has surpassed 1 billion users worldwide. That threshold was crossed 1,576 days after Windows 11’s general availability on 5 October 2021 – a few months faster than it took Windows 10 to hit the same level (around 1,692 days after its 29 July 2015 launch).

Windows 11 is a free upgrade for Windows 10 users, but unlike Windows 10’s more permissive rollout, the newer OS has stricter hardware requirements, particularly around CPU generation and TPM security features. That has left a sizeable number of Windows 10 systems officially stuck on the older OS.

Ars Technica also points to estimates mentioned by Dell’s COO in late 2025 suggesting that around 1 billion PCs still run Windows 10, roughly half of which are not eligible for a Windows 11 upgrade. Microsoft has created a three‑year security update off‑ramp for Windows 10, including paid extended security updates for businesses.

At the same time, Microsoft’s Windows leadership has promised a renewed engineering focus on fixing Windows 11’s performance and reliability problems and modernising more of its legacy components.

Why this matters

Hitting 1 billion users is not just a vanity milestone; it cements Windows 11 as Microsoft’s primary platform for the next decade. A billion endpoints means a billion potential Copilot users, a billion machines connected to Microsoft’s app store, cloud services and advertising surfaces. That is the foundation on which the company wants to build its AI‑first future.

The beneficiaries are obvious:

• Microsoft gains negotiating power over OEMs, developers and even governments. It can dictate hardware baselines (TPM, modern CPUs) and push new experiences, from AI assistants to subscription add‑ons.
• PC manufacturers benefit from the forced hardware refresh cycle: older Windows 10 machines that can’t upgrade provide a strong nudge toward buying new devices.

But there are losers too:

• Consumers and small businesses with perfectly functional older hardware face a stark choice: pay for extended Windows 10 security, risk running unsupported, or replace machines early.
• Power users and privacy‑conscious users are stuck between an increasingly naggy Windows 11 – with account requirements, upsells and service prompts – and an ageing Windows 10 whose clock is ticking.

The deeper problem is that this success doesn’t necessarily reflect satisfaction. It reflects lock‑in and inertia. Windows remains the default for most business workflows, games, specialist software and peripherals. When OEMs ship almost nothing but Windows 11, and IT departments standardise on it, adoption becomes the path of least resistance – even if many of those users disable half the new features on day one.

For Microsoft, the risk is subtle but serious: if Windows 11 is perceived not just as unavoidable, but actively hostile, the incentive for developers and advanced users to slowly migrate to macOS, Linux or web‑based alternatives only grows.

The bigger picture

Windows 11’s 1‑billion mark sits at the intersection of three major industry trends.

1. Hardware control as a strategic lever
Stricter system requirements are not only about security. They give Microsoft and chip vendors more influence over the pace of the PC refresh cycle. When OEMs and Microsoft talk about “AI PCs”, they’re really talking about a tightly defined hardware baseline that can run local models, Copilot and future features efficiently – and that baseline is effectively tied to Windows 11 and beyond.

Historically, we saw something similar with Windows Vista’s push for new graphics capabilities or Windows 8’s touch‑first ambitions, both of which nudged hardware in new directions. The difference now is that the cloud and AI services layered on top create recurring revenue, not just a one‑time OS sale.

2. Windows as a service – and as a funnel
Windows has long since stopped being a product you buy once. It is an engagement layer for Microsoft 365, OneDrive, Game Pass, Edge, Bing and soon increasingly Copilot‑powered services. Mandatory Microsoft accounts on consumer editions, constant reminders to use Edge or OneDrive, and ads or recommendations in the Start menu are not accidental annoyances; they are the business model.

This aligns Windows more with Android than with classic desktop OS thinking. Google monetises Android through services and ads; Microsoft is following a similar pattern on the PC. The fact Windows 11 can still hit 1 billion users despite this friction sends a strong message internally: the strategy is working.

3. Fragmentation and long tails
The Windows 10 “long goodbye” echoes what happened with Windows XP. When you have hundreds of millions of devices running an older version, you cannot simply flip a switch and walk away. Paid extended security updates turn that problem into a revenue stream, but they also prolong fragmentation and add complexity for developers and IT.

In the broader OS landscape, this stands in contrast to Apple’s more aggressive, vertically integrated model, where a large share of active Macs adopts the latest macOS within a year or two. Microsoft, by design, must support a far messier, more heterogeneous world.

The European / regional angle

For Europe, Windows 11 at 1 billion users isn’t just a tech story; it is an infrastructure story. Windows PCs run public administrations, schools, SMEs and critical industries across the continent. When Microsoft tightens hardware requirements or nudges users toward cloud‑centric workflows, the ripple effects are systemic.

Three regulatory threads are particularly relevant:

• GDPR and telemetry – Windows 11’s extensive data collection, cloud‑tied features and mandatory accounts sit under a very different legal spotlight in the EU than in the US. Several national data‑protection authorities have already scrutinised Windows 10 in the past; Windows 11’s deeper cloud hooks will invite renewed attention.
• Digital Markets Act (DMA) – Europe is explicitly targeting gatekeepers that self‑prefer their own services. Windows promoting Edge, Bing or OneDrive at the OS level, or making them harder to avoid, fits squarely into the type of behaviour the DMA wants to curb.
• Digital Services Act (DSA) and upcoming AI rules – As Windows becomes a primary delivery vehicle for Copilot and other AI features, questions around transparency, logging and user control are no longer theoretical.

European organisations also face a budget and sustainability dilemma. Many municipalities, schools and SMEs still rely on hardware beyond the Windows 11 line. Either they replace machines earlier than planned, pay for Windows 10 extended security, or accelerate pilot projects around Linux desktops and virtualised desktops.

For a region pushing hard on right‑to‑repair and device longevity, a forced upgrade tied to security updates will be politically sensitive.

Looking ahead

The next 24–36 months will determine whether Windows 11 is remembered as a painful but necessary transition or as the release that pushed a generation of power users away.

Expect several developments:

• More AI baked into the OS – Microsoft has made it clear that Copilot‑style assistants and on‑device AI features are its strategic bet. Windows 11’s hardware baseline is the canvas for that. New features will arrive via regular feature updates rather than a big‑bang “Windows 12” moment.
• A slow but real Windows 10 exodus – As free and then paid security support windows close, enterprises will gradually accept migration pain. Many will jump to Windows 11 only when they also refresh hardware, leading to a multi‑year wave of upgrades.
• Growing pushback on nagware and bundling – Between EU regulators, consumer watchdogs and simple user fatigue, Microsoft will face pressure to dial down the most aggressive prompts and ads. It may respond with more formal “no‑ads” or “productivity only” modes for certain markets or SKUs.

The wildcard is developer and creator sentiment. If the people who build the tools and content for Windows increasingly choose macOS or Linux for their own work, the ecosystem’s centre of gravity will shift over time, even if headline market‑share numbers barely move in the short term.

In the background, browser‑based and cloud‑native apps continue to erode the importance of the underlying OS. That weakens Microsoft’s traditional moat – yet also explains why the company is so determined to turn Windows into a cloud and AI gateway while it still can.

The bottom line

Windows 11 crossing 1 billion users is both a triumph and a warning. It proves that Microsoft can still move the world’s PC base, even with stricter requirements and a more aggressive service‑driven design. But it also exposes how much of that success rests on inertia, lock‑in and a captive install base rather than genuine enthusiasm.

The real question for Microsoft – and for regulators, enterprises and users in Europe and beyond – is simple: if Windows 11 is the default, who really controls the future of the PC, and on whose terms?